Middle East Escalation – International Armed Conflict – World War Three Begins?

Breaking News – Conflict Escalation

CNN is releasing minute-by-minute reports on the international current events. Their posts today report on a drone attack on a US military base in Jordan, resulting in the death of three US troops and injuries to over 20 others. This marks the first US troop casualties in the Middle East due to enemy action since the Gaza war began. US Central Command confirmed the attack on the base in northeast Jordan. The post updates on over 158 attacks on US and coalition forces in the region, highlighting the escalated tensions.

The attack occurred at Tower 22, near the Syria border, escalating tensions in an already volatile Middle East. US Central Command confirmed the incident and the casualties. There have been over 158 attacks on US and coalition forces in the region, with this incident at Tower 22 being particularly notable due to the casualties.

The attack’s specifics, including why air defenses didn’t intercept the drone, remain unclear.

Source of attack still unknown- White House says it was by Iranian proxies (CNN, 2024)

President Biden condemned the attack and vowed to hold the perpetrators accountable, implicating Iran-backed militant groups. The attack’s broader implications include the potential impact on US-Iraq military presence discussions and regional stability, especially given ongoing efforts to contain the Gaza conflict.

The second CNN post today (January 28th) focuses on the broader regional implications of this attack. It states that the US has been working to prevent the Gaza conflict from expanding into a broader regional war. General CQ Brown mentioned efforts to deter Iranian proxies in the region. The post also discusses the US’s retaliatory actions against Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria and mentions upcoming US-Iraq talks about the US military presence. President Biden vowed to hold those responsible accountable and condemned the attack as “despicable and wholly unjust.”

This attack adds to the complexity of the US’s role in the Middle East. The US has been taking action against Iran-backed groups, including a recent strike on facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq. The incident comes amid ongoing tensions in the region and discussions about the future of US military presence in Iraq. President Biden’s response to the attack, while campaigning in South Carolina, underscores the seriousness of the situation and the US’s commitment to combating terrorism. The attack’s implications are significant, potentially affecting US policy and military strategy in the region.

Internationalist Analysis with Neorealism

Due to the anarchic nature of the international system and the distribution of power among states, internationalists can use Neorealism to interpret the recent drone attack in Jordan and the broader Middle East tensions as indicative of escalating great power rivalries and regional conflicts.

Neorealism posits that in an international system lacking a central authority, states prioritize their security and survival, often leading to power struggles and alliances.

The concept of a world war entails large-scale, international conflict involving multiple major world powers.

Historically, world wars have been preceded by periods of heightened tensions, arms races, and formation of opposing alliances, often triggered by a significant event or series of events.

Applying this to the current scenario, the drone attack in Jordan can be seen as a catalyst in a series of escalating tensions involving major powers and regional actors. The involvement of US forces, implications of Iran-backed groups, and the strategic importance of the Middle East is likely to draw in other major powers, echoing the alliance systems and escalatory dynamics of past world conflicts.

It’s important to note that this is an analysis based on breaking news and current events- the trajectory towards the next world war is neither inevitable nor clearly determined.

Potential Outcomes

1. Increased Military Presence and Alliances: Given the importance of the Middle East in global politics (and considering the Security Dilemma in Classical Realism), major powers will strengthen their military presence in the region. This could lead to new alliances or bolster existing ones, similar to the dynamics seen in the preludes to previous world wars.
2. Proxy Conflicts: States will engage in proxy wars, supporting allied regional actors in conflicts to indirectly confront opposing powers. This would increase regional instability but avoid direct confrontation between major powers.
3. Diplomatic Strain and Arms Race: As tensions escalate, diplomatic relations will most likely deteriorate, potentially leading to an arms race among major powers, also similar to historical patterns before world conflicts. This could heighten the risk of miscalculation and accidental escalation.

Conclusions

1. World wars can be hard to identify while they’re happening, but a conflict escalation like this appears to be the first big step towards a direct international war.
2. Due to all the proxy wars happening, it can be argued that the third world war has already started- numerous world powers are involved in the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
3. The US, due to direct losses, and Iran, due to the involvement of alleged proxies, are likely to be the most aggravated. This might also affect the interests of Russia and China, who have strategic interests in the region.
4. Potential Solution: A diplomatic approach involving all major stakeholders, possibly through the UN or an international coalition, focusing on de-escalation and addressing the root causes of the conflict, could be a viable solution. This would require concessions and collaboration from all major powers involved.

~ This is breaking news (released 20 minutes ago on CNN at the time of this publication) and will be updated/expanded on as the events unfold ~

References:

1. Cnn, B. <. H. C. <. H. R. C. E. A. A. R. (2024, 28 enero). LIvE Updates: US troops killed in Jordan, Israel-Hamas war, Gaza crisis. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-01-28-24/h_01d64f883adb4a154b237d022e1b7dff
2. Cnn, B. <. H. C. <. H. R. C. E. A. A. R. (2024b, enero 28). LIvE Updates: US troops killed in Jordan, Israel-Hamas war, Gaza crisis. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-01-28-24/h_1b035ce8679cdcafe4e902ae25d09d39
3. Cnn, B. <. H. C. <. H. R. C. E. A. A. R. (2024c, enero 28). LIvE Updates: US troops killed in Jordan, Israel-Hamas war, Gaza crisis. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-01-28-24/h_2484951bcacbf686a34d02c14f9b545a
4. BBC News. (2024, 28 enero). Three US troops killed in drone attack in Jordan. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68122706
5. Farrow, F., & Crawford, S. K. (2024, 28 enero). 3 US troops killed by Iranian-backed drone strike in Jordan, Biden says. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/International/3-us-troops-killed-iraninan-backed-drone-strike/story?id=106747031
6. ChatGPT. (n.d.). OpenAI. https://chat.openai.com/#