Attack on Chad’s Military Base: Context and Geopolitical Implications

A.I. Assisted- Blog

On October 15, 2024, at least 40 Chadian soldiers were killed during an attack on a military base on Barkaram Island, near Lake Chad. The Chadian presidency ordered a counter-mission, with speculation suggesting Boko Haram as the perpetrators due to the region’s proximity to Nigeria, where the group is active.

Historical Conflicts and Current Challenges

Chad’s strategic position in Central Africa has placed it at the crossroads of conflict for decades. Since gaining independence from France in 1960, the country has faced continuous unrest, including civil wars, regional insurgencies, and cross-border conflicts. Much of Chad’s instability has been driven by ethnic divisions, competition over natural resources, and external influence from neighboring states and global powers.

One of the pivotal challenges for Chad has been managing conflict in the Lake Chad region, where the shrinking of the lake has intensified competition over resources. Armed groups such as Boko Haram have exploited these vulnerabilities, launching attacks across borders from Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon in the past.

Chad has responded by becoming a key military partner in the fight against terrorism, contributing significantly to the Multinational Joint Task Force.

Additionally, Chad’s geopolitical landscape is shaped by its relations with France and the West, alongside its recent moves to strengthen ties with Russia. This complex balancing act has allowed Chad to maintain a degree of stability, but it also draws criticism from regional and international actors.

Internally, the transition of power following the death of former President Idriss Déby in 2021 brought new challenges. His son, Mahamat Déby, inherited both the leadership and the unresolved conflicts along Chad’s borders, requiring him to maintain a militarized government. As Chad attempts to stabilize and address threats from insurgents, its position as both a security partner and a resource-rich nation makes it a frequent target for regional destabilization efforts.

Understanding this history provides insight into why security remains Chad’s foremost concern and the risks of escalating conflict through hasty retaliation.

Chad Geopolitics

Given Chad’s strategic location bordering countries in turmoil—such as Niger, Libya, and Sudan—it remains a focal point in both Western and Russian geopolitical interests. Russia’s deepening relations with Chad have raised concerns for traditional Western allies, creating friction, especially with France and the U.S. Additionally, Chad’s involvement in conflicts around Sudan and Lake Chad complicates its relationships with neighbors and reveals broader dynamics linked to security, resources, and governance.

Chad’s Presidential Election: Sunday, December 29, 2024

Implications of the Attack on Chad’s Military Base Amid Upcoming Elections

The recent attack on Chad’s military base comes at a critical juncture, as the nation gears up for its combined legislative, provincial, and municipal elections on December 29, 2024. These elections are highly significant, given that they will provide citizens with a unique opportunity to elect representatives across multiple levels of government, shaping Chad’s political future in the long term.

Currently, Chad is led by Mahamat Idriss Déby, who assumed power after his father, Idriss Déby, was killed in 2021. As the election date nears, Déby seeks to consolidate his political influence amidst increasing challenges, including regional instability and violent incidents that threaten the election’s legitimacy.

Among the main contenders is Succès Masra, who leads the opposition party Les Transformateurs and is a prominent critic of Déby. Masra has voiced concerns about electoral fairness, accusing the government of manipulation and repression. This reflects broader political discontent, as recent surveys show widespread distrust in electoral authorities, with citizens expressing doubts about the credibility of the upcoming elections.

Implications (Geopolitical and Election-Related)

The recent attack has significant implications for Chad’s political landscape. The timing raises questions about whether the attack could have been orchestrated by internal or external actors to disrupt the elections or provoke instability. With Chad’s strategic importance in the Lake Chad region, bordering nations like Nigeria and Niger, the attack could serve to force Chad’s deeper military involvement in regional conflicts. Furthermore, the government might use this incident to justify an intensified security posture, potentially restricting political freedoms under the guise of national security—a tactic commonly used in regimes balancing power during volatile times.

The political stakes are further complicated by Chad’s evolving relationships with major powers. As the country strengthens its ties with Russia, balancing Western and Russian interests becomes a delicate task that may influence voter sentiment and regional alliances.

The attack could be exploited by political factions to frame narratives around security, with the ruling party potentially leveraging it to present Déby as the only capable leader amid such instability.

Realist Proposal for Election Strategy and General Stabilization

From a Realist perspective, it would be prudent for Chad’s government to avoid launching counter-offensives until there is clear evidence identifying the attackers. Premature military action without strategic certainty could backfire, further destabilizing the region or provoking retaliation from unidentified factions. Instead, reinforcing internal security and stabilizing border areas should take priority to ensure the elections proceed smoothly. Diplomatic channels can also be employed to strengthen ties with neighboring nations and international allies, minimizing external interference and reducing the risk of further attacks disrupting the political process.

This strategy aligns with the principles of Realism, which prioritize power consolidation and national interests. Stabilizing the security situation is essential for Chad’s leaders to maintain legitimacy and control during the electoral period, while demonstrating political competence to both domestic and international audiences.

Chad’s immediate focus should be on reinforcing border security and gathering intelligence to identify the attackers with certainty before launching a counterattack. Premature retaliation could exacerbate tensions and risk misidentifying the responsible group, potentially provoking new conflicts.

Strengthening internal defenses—such as increasing surveillance and collaborating with regional partners—will help prevent future attacks. Chad must prioritize practical measures like securing supply routes, safeguarding strategic locations, and fortifying military outposts. A cautious and calculated approach rooted in national interest and security is essential for maintaining stability in this volatile geopolitical landscape.

Conclusions

  1. With Chad’s elections set for December, the timing suggests a possible attempt to destabilize the political process or discredit current leadership.
  2. Chad’s relationships with Russia and Western nations are at stake, with the attack potentially influencing alignment in broader global conflicts.
  3. Control over Lake Chad’s diminishing water resources and regional influence may be an underlying factor behind the attack.
  4. The attack could be part of a larger strategy to manipulate Chad into deeper involvement in conflicts like those in Ukraine or Israel.


References

  1. Booty, N. (2024, 28 octubre). Attack on Chad military base kills 40 soldiers. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7wqqqvq2vo
  2. Grove, A. T., & Jones, D. H. (2024, 28 octubre). Chad | History, flag, Language, population, Map, & Facts. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/place/Chad/History
  3. On the Election in Chad – United States Department of State. (2024, 16 mayo). United States Department Of State. https://www.state.gov/on-the-election-in-chad/

WANT MORE?

DON’T MISS OUT ON EXCLUSIVE UPDATES & SECRET PROJECTS COMING SOON! SIGN UP!

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

No responses yet

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Translate »